Forecasting

Key dates

Jan. 31, 2022 Comments Due | Analysis Scope & Inputs, Net-Zero Emissions Pathways

An informed look ahead

The AESO publishes a Long-term Outlook every two years with updates as necessary. It is our forecast for electricity demand and generation in the province looking out 20 years. We use it to inform our long-term transmission plans and regulatory filings.

Using a variety of inputs including third-party forecasts and the most up-to-date data available, our outlook provides:

Expected growth in electricity demand, and timing
Anticipated demand for generation capacity
Potential types and locations of new generation

Net-Zero Emissions Pathways

Given the strong interest by stakeholders in potential pathways to a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, the AESO will be building upon the Clean-Tech Scenario of the 2021 Long-term Outlook (LTO) in an effort to provide further insights to our stakeholders. A driver for such analysis is that the potential transformation of the Alberta electricity system may occur at a faster pace and may involve technologies not considered in the 2021 LTO. Furthermore, this analysis will consider the technology review from the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow. The net-zero pathways analysis will inform and influence future long-term outlooks.

View our Net-Zero Emissions Pathways initiative consultation for further information and opportunities to participate.

View our Technology Integration page for additional information on the Technology Forward work or to view AESO Technology Summit 2021 materials.

2021 Long-term outlook

The 2021 LTO will be used as the forecast of Alberta’s load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to guide transmission system planning, long-term adequacy assessments, and market evaluations.

And while load growth is expected in the near term due to economic recovery as COVID-19 health restrictions ease, moderate load growth is expected over the next 20 years — but at a lower rate than in the previous 20-year period.