Forecasting

The AESO publishes a Long-term Outlook every two years with updates as necessary. It is our forecast for electricity demand and generation in the province looking out 20 years. We use it to inform our long-term transmission plans and regulatory filings.

Using a variety of inputs including third-party forecasts and the most up-to-date data available, our outlook provides:

• Expected growth in electricity demand, and timing
• Anticipated demand for generation capacity
• Potential types and locations of new generation

Long-term outlook comment matrix

Keeping with the mandate of providing safe, reliable and economic operation of the Alberta electricity system while facilitating a fair, efficient and competitive market for electricity, the AESO is developing the 2021 Long-term Outlook (LTO). 

Given the challenges faced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the low oil price, stakeholder feedback provided to the AESO will be an important input into how we forecast Alberta’s near to long-term electricity system.

Stakeholder engagement on LTO scenarios and preliminary results can be expected as the AESO makes progress toward the anticipated publication date in Q2 of 2021.

Preliminary results will be based in part from stakeholder feedback received in June 2020.

The AESO thanks you for your time and appreciates your input.

2019 Long-term Outlook

• 2019 Long-term Outlook [Updated: October 17, 2019]
• 2019 Long-term Outlook data file [Posted: September 30, 2019]
• AWS TruePower Wind and Solar Assessment [Posted: September 30, 2019]
• 2019 Long-term Outlook information session [Posted: October 3, 2019]
• 2019 Long-term Outlook webinar recording [Posted: October 4, 2019]

2017 Long-term Outlook

• 2017 Long-term Outlook [Posted: July 20, 2017]
• 2017 Long-term Outlook data file [Posted: August 17, 2017]
• 2017 Long-term Outlook stakeholder session presentation [Posted: July 25, 2017]