Forecasting
The AESO publishes a Long-term Outlook every two years with updates as necessary. It is our forecast for electricity demand and generation in the province looking out 20 years. We use it to inform our long-term transmission plans and regulatory filings.
Using a variety of inputs including third-party forecasts and the most up-to-date data available, our outlook provides:
- Expected growth in electricity demand, and timing
- Anticipated demand for generation capacity
- Potential types and locations of new generation
2021 Long-term outlook scenarios
Keeping with the mandate of providing safe, reliable and economic operation of the Alberta electricity system while facilitating a fair, efficient and competitive market for electricity, the AESO is developing the 2021 Long-term Outlook (LTO).
Over the next six months, the AESO will complete a detailed forecast of the reference case and run the scenarios.
We have solicited feedback from stakeholders that are interested in the 2021 Long-term Outlook in order to understand their perspectives and insights related to the proposed scenario narratives. Their feedback is available below.
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2021 LTO scenarios stakeholder feedback
We value stakeholder input and thank you for sharing your perspectives with us. All stakeholder submissions, in their original state with personal information redacted, are posted below.
- AEP
- AirdrieZero.org
- ATCO Electric
- Canadian Renewable Energy Association
- Chapman Ventures
- EDF Renewables Development Inc.
- Energy Storage Canada
- ENMAX
- Greengate Power Corporation
- Heartland Generation Limited
- Industrial Power Consumers Association of Alberta (IPCAA)
- Lionstooth Energy
- Maxim Power Corp
- Pembina Institute
- Sara Hastings-Simon and Blake Shaffer, School of Public Policy
- Suncor
- Trans Canada Energy Ltd. (TCE)
- TransAlta
- Utilities Consumer Advocate (UCA)
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2021 LTO stakeholder feedback
We value stakeholder input and thank you for sharing your perspectives with us. All stakeholder submissions, in their original state with personal information redacted, are posted below.
- Preliminary LTO scenario stakeholder consultation [Updated: December 15, 2020]
2019 Long-term Outlook
- 2019 Long-term Outlook [Updated: October 17, 2019]
- 2019 Long-term Outlook data file [Posted: September 30, 2019]
- AWS TruePower Wind and Solar Assessment [Posted: September 30, 2019]
- 2019 Long-term Outlook information session [Posted: October 3, 2019]
- 2019 Long-term Outlook webinar recording [Posted: October 4, 2019]
2017 Long-term Outlook
- 2017 Long-term Outlook [Posted: July 20, 2017]
- 2017 Long-term Outlook data file [Posted: August 17, 2017]
- 2017 Long-term Outlook stakeholder session presentation [Posted: July 25, 2017]