Forecasting

The AESO publishes a Long-term Outlook every two years with updates as necessary. It is our forecast for electricity demand and generation in the province looking out 20 years. We use it to inform our long-term transmission plans and regulatory filings.

Using a variety of inputs including third-party forecasts and the most up-to-date data available, our outlook provides:

• Expected growth in electricity demand, and timing
• Anticipated demand for generation capacity
• Potential types and locations of new generation

2021 Long-term outlook scenarios

Keeping with the mandate of providing safe, reliable and economic operation of the Alberta electricity system while facilitating a fair, efficient and competitive market for electricity, the AESO is developing the 2021 Long-term Outlook (LTO).

Over the next six months, the AESO will complete a detailed forecast of the reference case and run the scenarios.

We have solicited feedback from stakeholders that are interested in the 2021 Long-term Outlook in order to understand their perspectives and insights related to the proposed scenario narratives. Their feedback is available below.

Subsequent to the initial planning of the 2021 LTO Scenarios, the Government of Canada announced its plan to increase the carbon tax to $170 per tonne by 2030.  Given this new information announced on Dec. 11, 2020, the AESO’s Forecasting & Analytics Team has revised the 2021 LTO Clean-Tech Scenario to include a situation whereby the carbon price increases to $50 per tonne by 2022, and increases by $15 per tonne per year until 2030, when it reaches $170 per tonne.  The Clean-Tech Scenario will also be used to test market sustainability, operational impacts (net demand variability) and considered in the transmission planning process.

In parallel to the analysis of a $170 per tonne carbon price future, the AESO will continue to review the existing legislated approach to carbon pricing and pursue scenarios emulating different levels of load growth in the province such that reliable system planning and operations can be maintained for the benefit of all Abertans.