Forecasting
Recent materials posted
- June 27, 2022 Report | AESO Net-Zero Emissions Pathways Report
- June 27, 2022 Power BI | Net-Zero Emissions Pathways Dashboard
An informed look ahead
The AESO publishes a Long-term Outlook every two years with updates as necessary. It is our forecast for electricity demand and generation in the province looking out 20 years. We use it to inform our long-term transmission plans and regulatory filings.
Using a variety of inputs including third-party forecasts and the most up-to-date data available, our outlook provides:
- Expected growth in electricity demand, and timing
- Anticipated demand for generation capacity
- Potential types and locations of new generation
Net-Zero Emissions Pathways
Given the strong interest by stakeholders in potential pathways to a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, the AESO will be building upon the Clean-Tech Scenario of the 2021 Long-term Outlook (LTO) in an effort to provide further insights to our stakeholders. A driver for such analysis is that the potential transformation of the Alberta electricity system may occur at a faster pace and may involve technologies not considered in the 2021 LTO. Furthermore, this analysis will consider the technology review from the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow. The net-zero pathways analysis will inform and influence future long-term outlooks.
View our Net-Zero Emissions Pathways initiative consultation for further information and opportunities to participate.
View our Technology Integration page for additional information on the Technology Forward work or to view AESO Technology Summit 2021 materials.
2021 Long-term outlook
The 2021 LTO will be used as the forecast of Alberta’s load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to guide transmission system planning, long-term adequacy assessments, and market evaluations.
And while load growth is expected in the near term due to economic recovery as COVID-19 health restrictions ease, moderate load growth is expected over the next 20 years — but at a lower rate than in the previous 20-year period.
2021 Long-term outlook materials
- Webinar | 2021 LTO Information Session [Posted: July 20, 2021]
- Presentation | July 20 Stakeholder presentation [Revised: June 16, 2021]
- Highlights | 2021 LTO key highlights [Posted July 15, 2021]
- Agenda | Agenda for Stakeholder presentation [Posted: July 14, 2021]
- Report | 2021 Long-term Outlook [Posted: June 29, 2021]
- Data file | 2021 Long-term Outlook data file [Updated: Aug. 11, 2021]
- Data file | 2021 Long-term Outlook annual charts (Tableau) [Posted: June 29, 2021]
- Data file | 2021 Long-term Outlook hourly load charts (Tableau) [Posted: June 29, 2021]
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2021 LTO scenarios stakeholder feedback
We value stakeholder input and thank you for sharing your perspectives with us. All stakeholder submissions, in their original state with personal information redacted, are posted below.
- AEP
- AirdrieZero.org
- ATCO Electric
- Canadian Renewable Energy Association
- Chapman Ventures
- EDF Renewables Development Inc.
- Energy Storage Canada
- ENMAX
- Greengate Power Corporation
- Heartland Generation Limited
- Industrial Power Consumers Association of Alberta (IPCAA)
- Lionstooth Energy
- Maxim Power Corp
- Pembina Institute
- Sara Hastings-Simon and Blake Shaffer, School of Public Policy
- Suncor
- Trans Canada Energy Ltd. (TCE)
- TransAlta
- Utilities Consumer Advocate (UCA)
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2021 LTO stakeholder feedback
We value stakeholder input and thank you for sharing your perspectives with us. All stakeholder submissions, in their original state with personal information redacted, are posted below.
- Preliminary LTO scenario stakeholder consultation [Updated: December 15, 2020]
2019 Long-term Outlook
- 2019 Long-term Outlook [Updated: October 17, 2019]
- 2019 Long-term Outlook data file [Posted: September 30, 2019]
- AWS TruePower Wind and Solar Assessment [Posted: September 30, 2019]
- 2019 Long-term Outlook information session [Posted: October 3, 2019]
- 2019 Long-term Outlook webinar recording [Posted: October 4, 2019]
2017 Long-term Outlook
- 2017 Long-term Outlook [Posted: July 20, 2017]
- 2017 Long-term Outlook data file [Posted: August 17, 2017]
- 2017 Long-term Outlook stakeholder session presentation [Posted: July 25, 2017]