2024 Long-Term Outlook

The 2024 Long-Term Outlook (LTO) forecast, extending over the next two decades, charts an expected trajectory of Alberta’s load and generation based on current assumptions. It lays the groundwork for our transmission system planning, long-term adequacy assessments and market evaluations. 

The 2024 LTO is written amidst substantial uncertainty, driven by ongoing and new shifts within Alberta’s electricity landscape. Developments in government policy, technological innovation, and changes in production and consumption patterns call for a planning approach that is both flexible and responsive.  

To navigate these uncertainties, the AESO has created multiple scenarios alongside our primary corporate forecast. Furthermore, AESO acknowledges that significant work and effort remains ongoing around the shifting landscape for renewables development, evolutions to transmission policy and market structure.  

These scenarios contemplate various possible futures and highlight our commitment to adaptability and foresight in strategic planning. The modular formatting of the 2024 LTO also allows for agility to amend or develop additional content where relevant as the industry transforms in real time.  

Along with our stakeholders, the AESO will address opportunities and challenges to ensure the future electricity needs of Alberta are met.